Borsa Aperta
Borsa Assegnata
Scolarship code CU5.14

Impacts of climate change and its uncertainty on agriculture

  • Reference person
    Beatrice
    Monteleone
    beatrice.monteleone@iusspavia.it
  • Host University/Institute
    Scuola Univeritaria Superiore IUSS Pavia
  • Internship
    N
  • Research Keywords
    Climate change uncertainties
    Impact models
    High resolution climate models
  • Reference ERCs
    PE10_3 Climatology and climate change
    PE1_19 Scientific computing and data processing
    PE10_21 Earth system modelling and interactions
  • Reference SDGs
    GOAL 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
    GOAL 13: Climate Action
    GOAL 15: Life on Land
  • Studente
  • Supervisor
  • Co-Supervisor

Description

As highlighted by the UN development goals and the European Climate Law, climate change is a reality to which society needs to adapt. The possibility to address the adaptation issue lies on our ability to include climate change into impact studies.Until recently, climate modellers did not have the capability to generate long-term projections at a spatial and temporal resolution useful for impact studies as risk assessment for agriculture. The advent of kilometer-scale atmospheric models (convection-permitting models, CPMs), with a spatial resolution closer to what modellers in the field of agriculture need, enables those impact studies. Climate model ensembles are used to evaluate the uncertainties related with the climate change signal. An open question remains on how climate change uncertainties will propagate into impact models such as the ones used to estimate the effects of climate on agriculture. When using climate model as input, the weight of climate projection uncertainties affects the output of the impact model.This research aims to investigate the impact of using high-resolution climate model into models applied to estimate agricultural productivity to learn how to deal with uncertainties to provide examples of good practice, storylines and a clear message to stakeholders and policymakers. The study will rely on climate data accessible from the EU Copernicus project (the global ERA-5 reanalysis, CPM data created under the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study).

Suggested skills:

The ideal candidate will have experience with impact assessment models, statistical analysis, large climate dataset. Specific skills in the field of climate science will be considered a plus. Moreover, the candidate should be strongly motivated to work in a multi-disciplinary environment, collaborating with the STEM and social scientists of the CARISMA research centre and beyond.

Research team and environment

IUSS mission is to provide advanced education to undergraduate and graduate students, as well as fundamental and applied research. At IUSS, PhD candidates will find an open multidisciplinary environment offering real opportunities for developing academic and professional tools and he/she will join the research centre on Climate change impAct studies for RISk MAnagement (CARISMA). The team is composed by STEM and Social scientists working in the prism of CC on data analysis/modelling of Earth and economic system processes; impact/risk assessment of extreme events.