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CU41.CU-Gamma.10

Redefining Hydrological Extremes in a Changing Climate: A New Paradigm for Data-Scarce Modelling

  • Reference person
    Salvatore
    Manfreda
    salvatore.manfreda@unina.it
  • Host University/Institute
    Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II / Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Edile e Ambientale (DICEA)
  • Internship
    N
  • Research Keywords
    Hydrological Extremes
    Hydrological Modelling
    Stochastic models
  • Reference ERCs
    PE10_17 Hydrology, hydrogeology, engineering and environmental geology, water and soil pollution
    PE10_3 Climatology and climate change
    PE10_21 Earth system modelling and interactions
  • Reference SDGs
    GOAL 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
    GOAL 13: Climate Action
  • Studente
  • Supervisor
  • Co-Supervisor

Description

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes, challenging water resource management and climate adaptation—especially in data-scarce regions. Traditional hydrological models, reliant on dense and long-term datasets, often fail to represent the non-stationary and uncertain behavior of extreme events in these contexts. This PhD project aims to develop a novel modelling framework for the simulation and prediction of hydrological extremes under data limitations. The approach integrates physically based hydrological modelling with stochastic methods and advanced calibration strategies to improve reliability in representing extremes. Innovative data sources—such as remote sensing, reanalysis products, and citizen science—will be used to support model forcing, calibration, and validation. The research will: (1) assess existing models for extremes under non-stationarity and scarcity, (2) enhance modelling through data integration, (3) combine deterministic and probabilistic approaches to capture process and uncertainty, (4) apply regional and Bayesian calibration methods, and (5) validate the framework in diverse, climate-sensitive case studies. The outcome will define a new paradigm for modelling extremes, offering practical solutions for prediction and planning in regions most vulnerable to climate change and least equipped with observational infrastructure.‬‬

Suggested skills:

Strong background in hydrology or water resources; experience with hydrological/hydraulic modelling; knowledge of climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle; familiarity with calibration and uncertainty analysis; understanding of stochastic methods for extremes; proficiency in Python, R or MATLAB; experience with GIS and remote sensing data; ability to work with alternative data sources (e.g., reanalysis, citizen science); good communication skills in English; capacity for independent research and interdisciplinary collaboration.

For this scholarship it is mandatory a period of research abroad of 6months.

Research team and environment

HydroLAB coordinated by Prof. Salvatore Manfreda is operating in the department DICEA of the University of Naples Federico II which is a leading institute in hydraulic construction and hydrological studies particularly devoted in the optimization of water management systems. HydroLAB is developing new innovative technologies for environmental monitoring using remote sensing and camera systems. The environment is a stimulating and challenging one with a strong and significant international dimension.